Brand Valuation a Comparison of Alternative model

Lululemon Is Overvalued  February 13, 2013 – 10:20 pm
Comparison of 2005 brand valuation estimates for Toyota, Samsung and Apple ByYorkville Investor:

Lululemon (LULU) is overvalued, and you should short it. By all conventional metrics that we employ, Lululemon appears overvalued:

Lululemon's meteoric rise as an iconic branded clothing retailer has obscured the apparent disconnect between the admittedly strong fundamentals and the downright unreasonable valuation. Lululemon's existing valuation only appears reasonable if one values it on the basis of 2016 EBITDA (using the already aggressive growth assumptions we've made in our model).

We will outline a few of the reasons we believe that this name possesses material downside risks as the existing store base matures and same-store sales moderate.

(click to enlarge)

There are two buckets of risks which we believe may trigger a sell-off in the stock price:

  1. Fundamental Risks
    1. Stagnation, Saturation & Imminent Maturation of the Store Base
    2. Direct-To-Consumer will Eventually Cannibalize Retail Store-Based Revenue
    3. Concept is Unproven in Non-Western Geographies
    4. Margin Erosion
  2. Market Sentiment/Capital Markets-related Risks
    1. Revenue or Margin

Complete Story »

Source: SeekingAlpha.com: Home Page

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